Search for: All records

We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for analysis. We applied the modeling system to an 815 km2 study area in western Oregon at a sub-taxlot parcel grain and annual timestep, generating hundreds of alternative futures for 2007–2056 (50 years) to explore how WUI communities facing compound risks from increasing wildfire and expanding periurban development can situate and assess alternative risk management approaches in their localized SES context. The ability to link trends and uncertainties across many futures to processes and events that unfold in individual futures is central to the modeling system. By contrasting selected alternative futures, we illustrate how assessing simulated feedbacks between wildfire and other SES processes can identify tradeoffs and leverage points in fire-prone WUI landscapes. Assessments include a detailed “post-mortem” of a rare, extreme wildfire event, and uncovered, unexpected stabilizing feedbacks from treatment costs that reduced the effectiveness of agent responses to signs of increasing risk. 

Abstract To meet the challenges of hazards impacting coastal communities, demand is growing for more equitable coastal natural hazard adaptation and disaster mitigation approaches, supported by co-productive research partnerships. This review paper outlines contemporary advances in hazard adaptation and disaster mitigation with attention to how an equity and justice framework can address the uneven impacts of hazards on marginalized and underserved communities. Drawing upon the allied concepts of distributive, procedural, systemic, and recognitional equity and justice, we illustrate how these concepts form the basis for equitable coastal resilience. To demonstrate how equitable resilience can effectively advance contemporary adaptation and mitigation strategies, we present two vignettes where collaborative partnerships underscore how equitable coastal hazard planning and response practices complement these processes in coastal zones subject to large earthquakes and tsunamis. The first vignette focuses on disaster response and takes place in the Tohoku region of Japan, with diverse gender and sexual minority community members’ experiences of, and responses to, the 2011 Tohoku disasters. The second vignette centers on hazard planning and takes place on the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast along the Cascadia Subduction Zone to demonstrate how principles of distributive, procedural, systemic, and recognitional equity can inform the co-production of alternative coastal futures that prioritize equitable resilience. From this discussion, we suggest applying an equity lens to research processes, including alternative futures modeling frameworks, to ensure that the benefits of hazard adaptation and disaster mitigation strategies are equitably applied and shared. 

This paper presents a framework to evaluate the regional and local resilience of infrastructure networks following disruptions from natural hazards. Herein, the regional resilience of a network relates to the accessibility of a community within a larger network, whereas the local resilience concerns the ability of a network to provide its intended service within the boundaries of a community. Using this framework, a methodology is developed to demonstrate its application to a road and highway transportation network disrupted by ground shaking and inundation under a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and tsunami scenario. The regional network extents encompass the entire coast of the US state of Oregon. Embedded within this regional network are 18 local networks associated with coastal communities. Regional and local connectivity indexes are defined to identify the initial damage and then track the postdisaster recovery of the transportation network, i.e., evaluate the network resilience. The study results identify the attributes that lead to a regionally or locally resilient network and highlight the importance of considering local infrastructure networks embedded within larger regional networks. It is shown that without regional considerations, the time to recover may be severely underpredicted. The methodology is further used as a decision support tool to demonstrate how mitigation options impact the transportation network’s resilience. The importance of strategically considering mitigation options is emphasized as some communities see significant reductions in time to recover, whereas others see little to no improvement. 

Objective: Assess strength in adult females using multiple positions, motions, and contraction types, to better understand strength production of young and non-symptomatic of adult female subjects to help assess and improve the biofidelity of anthropomorphic test devices and human body models. Methods: Fifteen adult females (25.4 ± 6.3 years) were recruited for this study. Strength measurements were collected for the sagittal and coronal planes during isometric, concentric, and eccentric muscle contractions in neutral and mid-range of motion anatomical positions. Results: For both planes, subjects were strongest during eccentric muscle contractions and weakest in concentric muscle activations. In the sagittal plane, subjects were stronger in extension for all muscle activation types and anatomical positions. In the coronal plane, there were no side differences in isometric nor concentric strength. Conclusions: Neck strength of adult females depends on muscle activation type and anatomical positions. Future computational models should account for muscle activation type when quantifying responses of female subjects.